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Few and Far Between: Black Swans and the Impossibility of Prediction

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

April 05, 2007

Taleb, author of The Black Swan, contributes this thought-provoking essay on what we know about what we don't know. A 'black swan' is an improbable, dynamic event that, once it occurs, we rationalize to make it seem predictable (e.g. 9/11). Taleb discusses that while these black swans are actually impossible to predict, we must relearn how to learn from their impact.

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