Few and Far Between: Black Swans and the Impossibility of Prediction

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

April 05, 2007

Share Download

Taleb, author of The Black Swan, contributes this thought-provoking essay on what we know about what we don't know. A 'black swan' is an improbable, dynamic event that, once it occurs, we rationalize to make it seem predictable (e.g. 9/11). Taleb discusses that while these black swans are actually impossible to predict, we must relearn how to learn from their impact.

We have updated our privacy policy. Click here to read our full policy.