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How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions--And the Art of Knowing When Not to

How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions--And the Art of Knowing When Not to

By Kit Yates

Are you more likely to become a professional footballer if your surname is Ball. How can you be one hundred per cent sure you will win a bet. Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting. How do you prevent a nuclear war. Ever since the dawn of human civilisation, we have been trying to make predictions about what's in store for us.

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Book Information

Publisher: Basic Books
Publish Date: 10/31/2023
Pages: 448
ISBN-13: 9781541604933
ISBN-10: 1541604938
Language: English

What We're Saying

October 31, 2023

October 31, 2023

By Porchlight

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Full Description

A "vivid, wide-ranging, and delightful guide" (bestselling author Tim Harford) for understanding how and why predictions go wrong, with practical tips to give you a better chance of getting them right How can you be 100 percent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? Are you more likely to work in a kitchen if your last name is Baker? Ever since the dawn of human civilization, we have been trying to make predictions about what the world has in store for us. For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. In How to Expect the Unexpected, mathematician Kit Yates uncovers the surprising science that undergirds our predictions--and how we can use it to our advantage.   

From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Synthesizing results from math, biology, psychology, sociology, medicine, economic theory, and physics, Yates provides tools for readers to understand uncertainty and to recognize the cognitive biases that make accurate predictions so hard to come by.  

This book will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts, and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct. 

About the Author

Kit Yates is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Mathematical Sciences and codirector of the Centre for Mathematical Biology at the University of Bath.

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